Showing posts with label Black Swan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Black Swan. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Another disaster by Swaps......


Water and electric customers in the Seattle area, most of whom pay U.S. taxes, will pay an additional $14 million to get out of an agreement with American International Group Inc., the insurance company rescued from insolvency in 2008 by American taxpayers.

The fee from the Snohomish County Public Utility District, serving Boeing Co. and 320,000 other electricity buyers, will settle a nine-month-old dispute with AIG, according to a copy of the accord obtained under state public records law. The municipal power company and AIG sued each other over a contract created in 1994 to help Snohomish reduce its borrowing costs by $2.9 million -- an early version of a financial derivative known as an interest-rate swap.

Snohomish is among at least 1,900 public institutions from Puget Sound to the Aegean Sea that sought to lessen interest expenses using similar agreements with potentially hazardous results. Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, paid more than $900 million to get out of swaps that backfired when interest rates unexpectedly plummeted, increasing its costs.

Borrowers have paid as much as $5 billion to Wall Street to exit swaps since 2008, according to Peter Shapiro, the managing director of Swap Financial Group LLC, an adviser in South Orange, New Jersey.

“There’s a lot of so-called sophisticated stuff ginned up by the finance industry,” said William Kittredge, a former utility director in Oregon who is now director of the nonprofit Center for the Study of Capital Markets and Democracy in Arlington, Virginia. “When you’re talking about public money, it’s not the way to go.”

Exchanging Payments

In an interest-rate swap, parties exchange interest payments on a set amount of debt, often with the goal of locking in a fixed rate on a related set of variable-rate bonds. During the 2008 credit crisis, interest owed by local governments on floating-rate bonds exceeded payments they received under swap agreements.

Such “synthetic fixed-rate” deals pushed Jefferson County, Alabama, close to bankruptcy two years ago. It had refinanced $3 billion of debt with variable-rate bonds and purchased swaps to guard against borrowing costs rising. Its expenses soared when insurers guaranteeing the bonds lost their top credit grades, and the rate the county received fell.

‘Reckless Traders’

The Snohomish utility, which faced increased swap-related payments of about $5 million a year, resisted paying to exit its contract for almost two years. In its suit against AIG, Snohomish alleged that a “now-infamous unit of reckless traders” had “drawn a bead” on the utility. In the end, Snohomish opted to pay the termination fee and sell 15-year bonds to replace all its floating-rate debt, said Jim Herrling, senior manager of risk management and supply for the utility. Those bonds sold yesterday at 3.18 percent.

Snohomish projects it will save $14,179,907.63 in budgeted interest costs over the life of the new debt, Herrling said. All but $133,782 of that will go to AIG in the termination payment.

That fee is enough to buy a new energy-efficient refrigerator for 11,864 homes, based on estimates from the U.S. government’s Energy Star program. It amounts to about $43.75 for each Snohomish electric customer.

“The ratepayers I don’t think are going to be paying any more in the long run,” Herrling said. “They’re just making this payment up front and we’re reducing our future debt service payments between now and 2025.”

“We’re pleased that we have settled this matter,” said Mark Herr, a spokesman for New York-based AIG, which is 80 percent owned by the U.S. government after a 2008 bailout. Neither party made any admission of liability in the settlement.

Battled Enron

The Snohomish utility, located in Everett, Washington, 30 miles north of Seattle, unearthed audiotapes of Enron Corp. traders discussing manipulating California power prices in 2004. Enron, the bankrupt energy-trading company, had sued Snohomish over canceled power contracts. The utility paid $18 million, 10 cents on the dollar, to settle the suit in 2007.

In 1994, Snohomish needed money to build transmission lines, replace electrical poles and add street lighting.

Jerry Bobo, a banker at the time for New York-based Smith Barney Inc., recommended borrowing $58.3 million for 30 years at floating rates, using a swap agreement to lock in a fixed rate lower than Snohomish could obtain by issuing conventional bonds. The savings might total $2.9 million, according to a Smith Barney presentation obtained by Bloomberg through state public records law. In 1998, Smith Barney became a unit of Citigroup Inc., the bank rescued by taxpayers in 2008.

Reset Weekly

Rates on the debt, known as variable-rate demand bonds, would reset weekly. AIG agreed to accept a fixed 6.2 percent payment from Snohomish and pay the floating rate. A traditional fixed-rate bond at the time might cost the utility 6.95 percent, according to the bank’s presentation.

Through today, that spread saved the utility more than $4 million, according to Anne Spangler, the general counsel for Snohomish.

The power company gave up something more valuable: the right to refinance the bonds without penalty if interest rates changed, said Andrew Kalotay, a former Salomon Brothers bond analyst who is now a consultant in New York. That created significant risk for the borrower over the contract’s 30-year term, he said.

Kalotay compared it to a homeowner accepting a mortgage that would require extra charges in advance for refinancing. Private borrowers typically use swaps only to cover short-term rate movements of six months or less, he said.

Smith Barney’s presentation to the Snohomish utility portrayed the longer term of the accord as a way to save money.

‘No Significant Risks’

“The economics of a swap are such that the financial benefits of the transaction increase as the swap term increases,” one slide said. Another mentioned that credit raters would view the structure as fixed-rate debt.

“The result: True Synthetic Fixed Rate Debt,” the slide said. “No significant risks.”

“They could have done the same thing much more cheaply by using plain-vanilla, fixed-coupon bonds,” Kalotay said. “The swaps are a way for the banks to make a lot of money. Every 10 swaps municipalities enter into, nine of them turn out to be completely inappropriate.”

The floating-rate debt stood to make Smith Barney more in fees. Bobo acted as salesman and adviser as the utility debated the transaction. Then, his bank served as both underwriter and “remarketing agent,” responsible for setting weekly interest rates once the floating-rate debt was sold.

Additional Fee

That last duty earned a fee: 0.1 percent a year, or $1.7 million over the life of the bonds, according to documents presented to Snohomish officials. Those terms helped the bank earn more than double what it would have underwriting a traditional fixed-rate bond, the documents show.

Bobo, who has an office in Seattle, didn’t return telephone calls seeking comment. Citigroup spokesman Alex Samuelson declined to comment.

Floating rates on the utility’s bonds fell to as little as 1 percent to 2 percent from 2002 to 2004, while the utility was paying AIG 6.2 percent. Until mid-2008, Snohomish paid AIG a net $25.7 million, court filings show.

Demand for the bonds dried up during the 2008 credit crisis. The lack of liquidity was so severe it was likely to trigger a provision of the contract that, AIG said, would limit its own payments to the utility to an amount based on international bank rates. The power company would have to pay the higher floating rates, resulting in $5 million of additional annual costs.

Buying Back

Utility bond counsel William Doyle told Snohomish commissioners at a board meeting in September 2008 that they should buy back the bonds and put them into a trust. That would force AIG, then in the midst of a government bailout that totaled $182.3 billion, to pay the floating rate.

AIG’s lawyers questioned whether the arrangement was permissible under the bond agreements during a conference call. Doyle, of the firm of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP in San Francisco, “cut off the question,” according to AIG’s court filings. He declined to comment. The trust purchased the bonds in October 2008.

In July, AIG sued the utility in New York state court, saying the refinancing breached the swap agreement because the 58-page document required “written consent” from AIG for any purchase of the bonds. Snohomish then filed its suit against AIG in federal court, and the cases were consolidated in Seattle. The settlement disposes of it.

Citigroup was the senior underwriter of this week’s debt sale. The utility also added a co-manager, Barclays Plc, said Herrling, Snohomish’s financing manager.

“When you have two desks working your deal, you’re making sure you’ve got some checks and balances there,” he said.

The case is Public Utility District No. 1 of Snohomish County, Washington, v. AIG Financial Products Corp., U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington (Seattle).

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

How Mafia money launderers, terrorists and tax dodgers became smart !


Mafia money launderers, terrorists and tax dodgers may be accumulating 500-euro bills because they’re easy to hide and transport, the Bank of Italy said in a report.

As much as 6 million euros ($8.1 million) fit in an overnight bag, and 10 million euros in a 45-centimeter (18-inch) safe-deposit box, the central bank said in a 15-page internal study obtained by Bloomberg News.

“The wide diffusion of the 500-euro bill is a motive of possible concern in terms of fighting both money laundering and terrorism financing,” the June 2009 report prepared by the central bank’s financial intelligence unit said. “Cash is the ideal tool for illegal payment and movement of funds” and “the high-value banknote simplifies the logistical management of large sums of money,” according to the study.

The report may boost arguments by law-enforcement officials to do away with the 500-euro ($673) note, the second most- valuable bill among the world’s most-traded currencies. The Frankfurt-based European Central Bank reviewed the denominations of its banknotes in 2005, and has no plans to change the structure of its currency, an ECB spokesman said. The Bank of Italy report may foreshadow a split within the ECB on the merits of keeping the 500-euro note at the next review.

The dangers tied to the use of the 500-euro bill may “merit attention by monetary authorities and the institutions fighting money laundering and terrorism,” the report said.

Canada’s $1,000 Bill

The ECB had no comment on the Bank of Italy report, a spokesman said. A Bank of Italy spokeswoman had no immediate comment. The Bank of Canada withdrew its 1,000-dollar ($981) bill in 2000 “as part of the fight against money laundering and organized crime,” according to its Web site.

Latvia’s 500 lati ($951) bill is Europe’s highest-valued bill. Singapore’s 10,000 dollar ($7,248) note is the world’s most valuable, though rarely used. Among the six most-traded currencies, the 500-euro bills and the Swiss 1,000 franc ($939) note are the most valued, the Bank of Italy said. The $100 bill is the U.S.’s highest denomination.

Italy has one of the largest underground economies in Europe, worth as much as 19 percent of gross domestic product in 2008, or almost 300 billion euros, Rome-based research institute Censis says. The Italian mafias, the country’s biggest money launderers, prefer the large bills because they can transport higher amounts of cash in less space, said Maurizio De Lucia, a mob prosecutor who participated in the hunt and capture of Bernardo Provenzano, the boss of the Sicilian Mafia, in 2006.

The country’s main mafia groups boosted their profit by 12 percent to more than 78 billion euros last year, the anti- racketeering group SOS Impresa said in January.

Bills Rarely Seen

Cash payments, which unlike credit cards or checks are anonymous, are the basis for 91 percent of all transactions in Italy, compared with 59 percent in France and 78 percent in Germany, the Bank of Italy said in the report.

While the 566 million 500-euro notes in circulation outnumber the total population of the euro zone, Italians say they rarely run across them.

“We don’t see very many of them,” said Alessandro Migliacci, 28, a barber at the Antica Barbiere Peppino near the Spanish Steps in Rome. “The 20s and the 50s are by far the most common bills.”

Since the introduction of the euro to the public in 2002, the number of 500-euro bills in circulation has grown.

Fifty-euro bills made up almost 34 percent of the total euros in circulation in 2002, compared with 23 percent for the 500-euro note, the Bank of Italy said. In February of this year, the 500-euro note represented 36 percent of the total value of euros outstanding, surpassing the 50-euro note, which made up 31 percent of the total, according to the ECB.

‘Banning Banknotes’

The 500-euro bill’s use by money launderers and tax dodgers “is a strong argument for banning or at least reducing the quantity of these banknotes,” said Nicola Borri, a professor of economics at Luiss University in Rome. The big bill “makes it very easy for one person to carry across borders, say between Italy and Switzerland, large quantities of money.”

The Bank of Italy study found that there was a greater concentration of 500-euro bills per capita close to the borders of Switzerland and San Marino, where money-laundering regulations are less stringent. Italians who stashed their savings abroad to avoid taxes declared 95 billion euros last year as part of a tax amnesty passed by parliament, the country’s tax-collection agency said on Feb. 20. The amnesty expires at the end of April.

The Financial Action Task Force, the global money laundering watchdog based in Paris, recommended discarding large-denomination bills in 2005 to help fight crime and terrorism.

Drug Traffickers

“Countries should give consideration to the elimination of large denomination bank notes,” the FATF said. “These notes can be used by cash smugglers to substantially reduce the physical size of cash shipments being transported across borders and, by doing so, significantly complicate detection exercises.”

While the mafia isn’t named in the Bank of Italy report, investigators said the biggest money launderers are organized crime groups. Italy’s three main mafias boosted revenue 4 percent to 135 billion euros last year, compared with 83 billion euros in revenue for Eni SpA, the country’s biggest company, anti-racketeering group SOS Impresa estimates.

A Wad of Bills

“Large amounts of cash are needed in illegal transactions,” said De Lucia, the mob prosecutor. “Rather than use a suitcase to haul large amounts of 50-euro bills, criminals prefer to carry a wad of 500-euro bills in their pocket.”

Central and South American cocaine traffickers collect the 500-euro notes because they are easier to transport, Russell Benson, the Drug Enforcement Administration’s regional director for Europe and Africa said. A million dollars in $100 bills weigh about 22 pounds (10 kilograms), while $1 million in 500- euro bills at the current exchange rate of about $1.38 per euro weighs about 3.5 pounds, Benson said.

European-based Drug Trafficking Organizations possess “hundreds of millions of euros in illicit drug proceeds” which they must smuggle back to areas where the supplies originated, Benson said in an e-mailed comment yesterday.

“The 500 Euro note continues to be exploited by several of these trafficking groups to facilitate their money laundering efforts.”

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